The Refinery Revolution: Can We Really Go Carbon-Neutral by 2050?

I've been thinking a lot about the future of oil & gas industry lately. Having worked in oil & gas industry for over a decade, I have been thinking of what the future of refineries would look like. There is a huge push to reach net zero & move from hydrocarbon based products to non- hydrocarbon based products, thinking about it seems impossible, but theoritically it is possible, but practically it will cost a lot of money and I am sure you would not like to give 4x premium for a green fuel!

So let us take refineries and look into it. We all know that burning fossil fuels is a major contributor to climate change. But even as we transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles, we'll still need the products that come out of refineries - things like jet fuel, plastics, and chemicals that are essential to modern life.

So if you think electrification can eliminiate refineres you are wrong, refineries are integral part of our everyday life now!

I started wondering: is there a way to make refineries net zero? Could we completely reinvent these industrial behemoths to run on renewable energy and sustainable feedstocks?

It turns out I'm not the only one asking these questions. A fascinating new paper in Nature by researchers Eelco Vogt and Bert Weckhuysen lays out an ambitious vision for the "refinery of the future" - one that could theoretically produce all the fuels and materials we need without any net carbon emissions by 2050.

As I read through he paper I found myself alternating between excitement at the technological possibilities and skepticism about the enormous challenges involved. Let's break it down and see if this refinery revolution is really feasible.

The Basic Concept: Refineries Without Fossil Fuels

The core idea behind the "refinery of the future" is to completely change the input streams. Instead of crude oil, these refineries would run on:

1. Carbon dioxide captured from the air
2. Agricultural and municipal waste (including biomass and plastic waste)

Using renewable electricity, the refineries would convert these feedstocks into hydrocarbon fuels, chemicals, and materials - all without any net carbon emissions.

It's a compelling vision, but will it work at scale and economically?

Let's look at some of the key elements and challenges.

Carbon Capture: Sucking CO2 from the Sky

A major component of this future refinery concept is large-scale carbon capture - specifically, direct air capture (DAC) of CO2 from the atmosphere. This CO2 would serve as the carbon source for producing hydrocarbon fuels.

The scale required is staggering. The researchers estimate that a single refinery would need to capture about 18,000 tons of CO2 per day. To put that in perspective, the largest current DAC facility (Orca, run by Climeworks) captures just 4,000 tons per year.

That means we'd need to scale up DAC technology by a factor of over 1,600 to meet the needs of just one refinery. And there are over 600 refineries worldwide that would need to be converted.

Looks impossible, But if we draw parallels from the tech industry I remind myself of Moore's Law and how computing power has grown exponentially. If DAC technology followed a similar trajectory, we could theoretically reach the required scale in about 22 years.

Still, the energy requirements are immense. Using current technology, capturing all that CO2 would consume about 1.5 gigawatts of power per refinery. That's more than the output of a typical nuclear reactor!

Renewable Energy: Powering the Process

Speaking of power, these future refineries would require lot of energy. The researchers estimate that producing the hydrogen needed for fuel synthesis would require about 5.5 gigawatts of electricity per refinery.

To generate that much renewable energy, we'd need either:

1. A solar farm covering 104 square kilometers (40 square miles)
2. 328 of the largest offshore wind turbines
3. Or some combination of the two

And that's just for hydrogen production. Add in the energy for carbon capture and other processes, and we're looking at 7+ gigawatts per refinery.

To put that in perspective, replacing all 615 existing refineries would require over 4,300 gigawatts of renewable electricity generation. That's about 16% of the total global electricity production projected for 2050.

It's like we'd need to build a small country's worth of solar panels and wind farms for each refinery!

The Price Tag: Billions and Billions

The researchers estimate the cost of renewable energy infrastructure alone at 9-18.5 billion euros per refinery. Add in the refinery equipment itself, and we're looking at 14-23 billion euros each.

Multiply that by 615 refineries, and we're talking about investments of 320-520 billion euros per year, every year until 2050.

Looks like a lot, But then again, the fossil fuel industry already invests hundreds of billions annually in exploration and production. Maybe it's not as expensive as it first appears?

Waste Not, Want Not: Biomass and Plastic Recycling

Another key piece of the puzzle is using agricultural and municipal waste as feedstock. This includes things like:

• Biomass (plant matter, food waste, etc.)
• Plastic waste

The idea is to break these materials down into chemical building blocks that can then be used to produce fuels, chemicals, and new plastics.

It's a great concept in theory. But the numbers are, once again, high. To supply all 615 future refineries, we'd need:

• 1.4 billion tons of biomass per year
• 628 million tons of plastic waste per year

The good news is that we should have enough biomass available. The bad news? We'd need to recycle about 2/3 of all plastic production to meet the demand. Given that our current recycling rates are abysmal, that's a tall order.

The Technology Gap: From Lab to Industrial Scale

Reading through the paper, I'm struck by how many technological breakthroughs we'd need to make this vision a reality. Some of the key challenges include:

1. Scaling up direct air capture by several orders of magnitude
2. Developing more efficient electrocatalysts for CO2 conversion
3. Creating new processes for breaking down biomass and plastic waste
4. Electrifying high-temperature industrial processes
5. Dramatically increasing green hydrogen production

Many of these technologies exist in the lab or as small pilot projects. But scaling them up to the level needed for industrial production is a monumental task.

It reminds me of the early days of renewable energy when solar panels were prohibitively expensive and wind turbines were relatively rare. We've made incredible progress in those areas, but it took decades of sustained investment and innovation.

Can we accelerate that process for these refinery technologies? It's possible, but it would require an unprecedented level of focus and investment from both the public and private sectors and policy from governments.

Resource Constraints: The Other Elephant in the Room

As I was reading about all the solar panels, wind turbines, and electrolyzers needed for this future refinery concept, a thought occurred to me: where are we going to get all the materials to build this stuff?

It turns out the researchers are worried about this too. Many of the technologies required rely on critical minerals and rare earth elements. We're talking things like:

• Neodymium and dysprosium for wind turbine magnets
• Indium, gallium, and tellurium for solar panels
• Iridium and platinum for electrolyzers

Some of these materials are already in short supply. Dramatically increasing demand could lead to new resource constraints and geopolitical tensions.

It's a stark reminder that solving one problem (fossil fuel dependence) often creates new challenges. There's no free lunch when it comes to energy and materials.

The Bottom Line: Ambitious but Essential?

After diving deep into this future refinery concept, I'm left with mixed emotions. On one hand, the scale of the challenge is daunting. We're talking about a complete reinvention of a massive, complex industry in less than 30 years. The technical hurdles are enormous, and the required investments are huge.

On the other hand, what choice do we have? Climate change isn't going to wait for us to come up with perfect solutions. And we can't simply eliminate all the products that come from refineries - at least not without massive disruptions to our way of life.

The researchers behind this paper argue that with sufficient long-term commitment and support, we could develop the necessary technologies by 2050. It would require an unprecedented level of cooperation between governments, industry, and academia. But it's not technically impossible.

As I reflect on all this, I'm reminded of John F. Kennedy's famous moon speech:

"We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills..."

Reinventing refineries for a carbon-neutral future may be our generation's moonshot. It's an enormous challenge, but one that could drive innovation and progress across multiple industries.